#include #include #include #include #include #include #include std::mt19937 generator(std::chrono::high_resolution_clock::now().time_since_epoch().count()); std::uniform_real_distribution distribution(0.5, 2.0); static std::string roundName[] = {"Round of Sixteen", "Quarterfinals", "Semifinals", "Final"}; class Team { private: //factors deciding a teams strength go here //the official rank -> the higher the better int fifa_rank; //a teams value in Mio. -> the higher the better double value; //average age of a team -> less is better here double age; //a teams fitness - it will decrease as the tournament goes on and is influenced by the age //the higher the better double fitness; //the general performance, e.g. has the team a good phase or does it play bad //the higher the better (randomized factor) double performance; //the daily performance -> the higher the better //this is a randomized factor again double daily_performance; //last, officially calculated quotes on the winning chances -> less is better here //this value is an average based on multiple quotes double quotes; //teams name std::string name; //teams power double power; //flag to determine if last game was won bool winner; public: Team(int, double, double, double, double, double, double, std::string); Team(const Team&); ~Team() = default; Team& operator=(const Team&) = default; double calculatePower(); inline double getPower() const { return power; } inline void setFitness() { fitness -= age/10.0; } inline std::string getName() const { return name; } inline bool getWinner() const { return winner; } inline void setWinner(bool b) { winner = b; } }; Team::Team(int r, double v, double a, double f, double p, double d, double q, std::string n) :fifa_rank(r), value(v), age(a), fitness(f), performance(p), daily_performance(d), quotes(q), name (n) {} Team::Team(const Team& T) :fifa_rank(T.fifa_rank), value(T.value), age(T.age), fitness(T.fitness), performance(T.performance), daily_performance(T.daily_performance), quotes(T.quotes), name(T.name) {} double Team::calculatePower() { //the daily performance changes with each match this->daily_performance = distribution(generator); //this is the core of the simulation //it caculates a teams power based on its factors //and the formula I created for this power = (1.0 / fifa_rank); power += (value / 100.0); power *= (fitness / 100.0); power += (10.0 / quotes); //the randomness factor is quite high here, to //ensure that even theoretically worse teams can //win if the favoured team plays bad power += (2 * performance); power *= (daily_performance * daily_performance); //after a match, decrease the fitness this->setFitness(); //return the calculated power return power; } //pool of Teams as reference, sorted by groups std::vector< Team > Teams = { //GROUP A Team(70, 161.38, 28.9, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 34.0, "Russia"), Team(14, 373.0, 28.2, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 26.0, "Uruguay"), Team(45, 196.88, 29.0, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 1800.0, "Egypt"), Team(67, 18.83, 28.8, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 2500.0, "Saudi Arabia"), //GROUP B Team(37, 48.3, 27.2, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 500.0, "Iran"), Team(4, 494.5, 28.4, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 20.0, "Portugal"), Team(10, 1000.03, 28.5, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 5.5, "Spain"), Team(41, 129.45, 27.3, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 1200.0, "Morocco"), //GROUP C Team(7, 1000.08, 26.1, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 8.0, "France"), Team(12, 259.3, 27.2, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 81.0, "Denmark"), Team(36, 50.25, 28.0, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 450.0, "Australia"), Team(11, 38.53, 27.5, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 250.0, "Peru"), //GROUP D Team(20, 364.0, 27.9, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 28.0, "Croatia"), Team(22, 76.0, 28.6, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 180.0, "Iceland"), Team(5, 699.0, 29.6, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 12.0, "Argentinia"), Team(48, 134.85, 28.0, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 450.0, "Nigeria"), //GROUP E Team(34, 280.45, 26.8, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 106.0, "Serbia"), Team(2, 981.0, 28.6, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 5.0, "Brazil"), Team(6, 218.1, 27.2, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 90.0, "Switzerland"), Team(23, 40.0, 29.8, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 600.0, "Costa Rica"), //GROUP F Team(24, 119.75, 28.3, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 100.0, "Sweden"), Team(15, 154.6, 29.3, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 40.0, "Mexico"), Team(57, 85.03, 28.0, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 750.0, "South Korea"), Team(1, 883.0, 27.2, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 9.0, "Germany"), //GROUP G Team(3, 754.0, 27.6, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 9.0, "Belgium"), Team(12, 874.0, 26.1, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 13.0, "England"), Team(21, 58.88, 26.6, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 1000.0, "Tunisia"), Team(55, 8.23, 28.9, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 2500.0, "Panama"), //GROUP H Team(61, 75.6, 28.6, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 200.0, "Japan"), Team(27, 299.5, 27.0, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 80.0, "Senegal"), Team(8, 274.55, 28.3, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 126.0, "Poland"), Team(16, 251.3, 28.0, 100.0, distribution(generator), distribution(generator), 75.0, "Columbia") }; //struct holding the result how often a team won the simulation struct Result { std::string name; //team name int wins; //number of wins Result(std::string n) :name(n), wins(1) //if the element is constructed, it is the first win {} }; class Tournament { private: //lists holding the groups std::forward_list< std::forward_list< Team >> group; //list holding the teams that advance further std::forward_list< Team > finals; //simulates a game between two teams void play(Team& a, Team& b); public: //initializes the groups Tournament(); //simulates a tournament runthrough, returning //the winning team's name std::string simulate(bool); }; void Tournament::play(Team& a, Team& b) { //calculate the teams power a.calculatePower(); b.calculatePower(); //based on the power, decide the winner if (a.getPower() > b.getPower()) { a.setWinner(true); b.setWinner(false); } else if (a.getPower() < b.getPower()) { a.setWinner(false); b.setWinner(true); } //for the unlikely case the power equals else { //the winner is randomly decided if (generator() % 2) { a.setWinner(true); b.setWinner(false); } else { a.setWinner(false); b.setWinner(true); } } } //fill each group with four teams //based on the real groups Tournament::Tournament() { for (std::size_t i {0}; i < 8; ++i) { group.push_front(std::forward_list( Teams.begin() + 4 * i, Teams.begin() + 4 * i + 4 )); } } std::string Tournament::simulate(bool mode) { //group phase for (auto it = group.begin(); it != group.end(); ++it) { //calculate the teams power in each group for_each(it->begin(), it->end(), [](Team& a) { a.calculatePower(); }); //and sort the group based on the power level it->sort([](const Team& a, const Team& b) { return a.getPower() > b.getPower(); }); if (mode) { auto jt = it->begin(); for (std::size_t i {1}; i < 5; ++i) { std::cout << i << ". " << jt->getName() << std::endl; ++jt; } std::cout << std::endl; } } //now the first and second of each group are //assigned their positions in the round of last for (std::size_t i {0}; i < 2; ++i) { std::size_t group_index {1}; for (auto it = group.begin(); it != group.end(); ++it) { auto jt = it->begin(); //during the first iteration, we start //with the first //e.g. 1A, 2B, 1C, 2D, ... if (!i && !(group_index & 1)) { ++jt; } //during the second iteration, we do the //opposite, to ensure a first place //matches against second place if (i && (group_index & 1)) { ++jt; } //transfer the element to the round of last finals.push_front(Team(*jt)); //move on to the next group ++group_index; } } //final round //there are four rounds until a winner is decided for (std::size_t round {1}; round < 5; ++round) { if (mode) { std::cout << std::endl << roundName[round - 1] << std::endl << std::endl; } //let two teams face off against each other for (auto it = finals.begin(); it != finals.end(); ++it) { auto jt = it; ++jt; //iterator pointing to next team play(*it, *jt); if (mode) { std::cout << it->getName() << " VS " << jt->getName(); std::cout << " => " << (it->getWinner() ? it->getName() : jt->getName()); std::cout << std::endl; } ++it; //necessary because the iterator needs to advance twice per iteration } //remove losers from the list finals.remove_if([](const Team& a) { return a.getWinner() == false; }); } //last remaining team = winner //return winning team's name return finals.front().getName(); } int main() { std::cout << "+++FIFA World Cup Simulation 2018+++\n\n"; int mode {}; std::cout << "Do want to see one round in detail or run a complete simulation of 10.000 runs?\n"; std::cout << "(1) Single Run\n"; std::cout << "(2) Simulation\n\n"; std::cin >> mode; if (mode > 2 || mode < 1) { std::cout << "Invalid input. Default mode 2 has been chosen.\n\n"; mode = 2; } Tournament* trial; switch (mode) { case 1: { trial = new Tournament(); std::string victor = trial->simulate(true); std::cout << std::endl; std::cout << victor << " won the FIFA World Cup 2018!\n"; std::cout << "Congratulations!" << std::endl; delete trial; } break; case 2: { std::vector< Result > winner; std::vector::iterator it; for (std::size_t i {0}; i < 10000; ++i) { //initialize a new tournament trial = new Tournament(); //safe the winner std::string victor = trial->simulate(false); //flag indicating if an entry was found bool flag = false; //search the list of winners for existing entry for (it = winner.begin(); it != winner.end(); ++it) { if (it->name == victor) { flag = true; break; } } //add one win to entry / make new entry if (flag) { ++it->wins; } else { winner.push_back(Result(victor)); } //delete current tournament runthrough delete trial; } //sort the list of winners by their wins std::sort(winner.begin(), winner.end(), [](const Result& a, const Result& b) { return a.wins > b.wins; }); //feature the team that is most likely going to win std::cout << winner.front().name << " wins the FIFA World Cup 2018 with a probability of " << (static_cast(winner.front().wins) / 10000) * 100 << "%.\nSee the detailed results below.\n\n"; //output the detailed results of the simulation std::cout << " Team Wins Probability\n"; for (it = winner.begin(); it != winner.end(); ++it) { std::cout << std::setw(14) << it->name; std::cout << std::setw(8) << it->wins; std::cout << std::setw(14) << (static_cast(it->wins) / 100.0) << "%"; std::cout << std::endl; } } //case 2 } //switch return 0; }

[Contest] WM 2018 Simulation